We present ensemble method for improving red tide prediction using the high resolution ESMs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and reanalysis data. Red tide is a common name for harmful algal blooms that occur worldwide, which result from large concentrations of aquatic microorganisms, such as dinoflagellate Karenia brevis, a toxic single celled protist. ![]() We apply the method to improve the prediction of red tide along the West Florida Shelf in the Gulf of Mexico, which affects coastal water quality and has substantial environmental and socioeconomic impacts on the State of Florida. The ensemble size is then updated by selecting the subsets that improve the performance of the ensemble prediction using decision relevant metrics. In the prescreening step, the independent ensemble members are categorized based on their ability to reproduce physically-interpretable features of interest that are regional and problem-specific. We present the ensemble method of prescreening-based subset selection to improve ensemble predictions of Earth system models (ESMs). 5Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States.4Center for Environmental Measurement and Modeling, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Gulf Breeze, FL, United States.3Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States.2Center for Economic Forecasting and Analysis, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, United States.1Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, United States.Kranz 1, Julie Harrington 2, Xiaojuan Yang 3, Yongshan Wan 4 and Mathew Maltrud 5 The study's authors include: Brendan Turley from the UM NOAA Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies Mandy Karnauskas, Matthew Campbell, David Hanisko from NOAA's Southeast Fisheries Science Center and Christopher Kelble from NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory.Ahmed S. The study, titled "Relationships between blooms of Karenia brevis and hypoxia across the West Florida Shelf," will appear in the May issue of the journal Harmful Algae, which is currently online. There is an ongoing effort to collaborate with commercial fishermen in Southwest Florida to monitor for red tide blooms and formation of hypoxia, which incorporates data collected during various NOAA surveys conducted in the region annually. The researchers found that hypoxia was present in five of the 16 years examined, three of which occurred concurrently with extreme red tides in 2005, 2014, and 2018. The study, conducted as part of NOAA's Gulf of Mexico Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Program, examined nearly 20 years of oceanographic data that included temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen from the surface to the seafloor across the West Florida Shelf to determine the frequency of hypoxia and association with known red tides. "There are also concerns that the conditions favorable for combined red tide and hypoxia events will increase with climate change projections into the future." During the 2005 red tide that also had hypoxia, it was estimated that about 30% of the red grouper population was killed," said Brendan Turley, an assistant scientist at the UM Rosenstiel School and NOAA's Cooperative Institute of Marine and Atmospheric Studies. "These events are so disruptive they are being incorporated in population assessments of some grouper species for use in fishery management decisions. Hypoxic areas are typically referred to as 'dead zones'. ![]() ![]() ![]() These algae blooms turn the ocean surface red and produce toxins that are harmful to marine mammals, sharks, seabirds and humans causing a range of issues from respiratory irritation, localized fish kills to large-scale massive mortalities to marine life. Red tides are becoming a near annual occurrence off the west coast of Florida, which are caused by massive blooms of the algae Karenia brevis fueled in part by excess nutrients in the ocean.
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